Research
Research Activities
My research examines how people make predictions and decisions — from forecasting geopolitical events to trading in political prediction markets. I study the biases that shape these judgments and how training can help attenuating them.
Published Papers
Published 2025
International Journal of Forecasting
Training to Forecast Better
How does training improve individual forecasts? Modeling differences in compensatory and non-compensatory biases in geopolitical forecasts
Published 2025
International Journal of Forecasting
Emotional Biases in Political Decision Making
Emotions and the status quo: The anti-incumbency bias in political prediction markets
Research Interests